NBA ROOKIE PRESEASON
PER36 ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
Every year, as the NBA Preseason rolls around, analysts and basketball fans question the validity of individual performances. This debate revolves particularly around Rookies. With this project, I investigated the correlation between NBA Rookie Preseason and Regular Season statistics.
2. data collection
& MANIPULATION
Data Sources & Processing:
1. NBA Preseason Totals - Rookies (2016-2024):
Rookie Total Preseason statistics were scraped from the NBA Official Website. This dataset included 888 Rookies which are defined as: any first year player that has never signed a contract with an NBA team.
Preseason Totals were calculated to PER36 statistics to normalize the disparity of playing time and quantify a player’s impact while on the court.
2. Regular Season PER36 Statistics (2016-2024):
Regular Season PER36 statistics for previously defined “Rookie” were collected from Sports Reference.
Positional data is defined by the position predominantly played by each “Rookie” in their first Regular Season.
Statistical Categories Used in Analysis:
3. ANALYSIS OF
STATISTICS BY POSITION
PART 1 - Bigs & Rim Protection
Among the 888 total players, 124 played PF/C in their Rookie year and played at least 60 minutes in Preseason. The correlation amongst this dataset between their BLK/36 in the Preseason and Regular Season was +0.65. This means the Preseason data can explain about 65% of the BLK/36 Regular Season data.
Oso Ighodaro (PHX) is a player that I want to keep my eyes on for this Regular Season. Ighodaro was drafted because of his potential to play a role on the Suns immediately. He played 122 minutes in five games this Preseason while accumulating the highest BLK/36 of all Rookies at 2.6. Ighodaro’s high Preseason blocking rate could translate to an above-average shot-blocking performance if given the opportunity.
Since the 2018 NBA Draft Class, there have been only 20 players have averaged > 2.0 BLK/36 in the Regular Season that fit the following criteria:
Played as a PF/C in their Rookie season.
Participated in at least four Preseason games.
Logged at least 60 total minutes in Preseason.
This list includes Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and Jonathan Issac, to name a few. Ighodaro’s shot-blocking prowess, when contextualized within a larger picture of Rookie Power Forwards/Centers, provides a promising outlook on the type of rim-protector he can become.
PART 2- gUARDS & Creating opportunites
Since the 2016 NBA Season, there have been 155 Rookies who played PG/SG in their Rookie Year and logged at least 60 minutes in Preseason. The correlation between AST/36 in the Preseason and Regular Season was +0.70 for qualified players.
Stephon Castle (SAS), the 19-year-old Rookie, will serve as a backup guard for an organization continually looking to add contributing pieces to build around Wembanyama. Castle was confined to a secondary ball-handler role at UConn but showed flashes as a primary facilitator throughout high school. In the 2024-25 Preseason, Castle played 105 minutes over five games and averaged 6.6 AST/36. This came in the form of recording between three to five assists in those games while averaging ~21 MPG.
Since the 2018 NBA Draft Class, there have been only 13 players have averaged > 6.0 AST/36 in the Regular Season that fit the following criteria:
Played as a PG/SG in their Rookie season.
Participated in at least five Preseason games.
Logged at least 60 total minutes in Preseason.
The list of players includes Ben Simmons, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Ja Morant. Being in the same company as these high-caliber creation players underscores Castle's unique playmaking. These standout AST/36 numbers are a possible indicator of above-average playmaking skills at the NBA level.
4. IMPLICATIONS
While the PER36 correlations for Preseason and Regular Season performance are noteworthy, there are limitations and potential future research opportunities I want to consider:
Limitations:
Sample Size of Preseason Games: For the 2024-25 NBA Preseason, the maximum number of games any team played was five. This presents a significant statistical limitation on what can be considered an accurate representation of a player’s performance in the long run.
Rookie Adjustment Period: Many NBA Rookies are still very young and getting acclimated to the game, which includes an increased pace of play, higher levels of physicality, greater speed, and athleticism. That being said, Pre-Season statistics for one-and-done players often do not reflect their long-term potential.
future opportunities:
Analyze how Rookie statistics evolve from Summer League through Preseason and into the Regular Season
Examine whether certain positions or playing styles require longer adjustment periods