mortiz wagner 2023 ufa
SALARY PROJECTION
wagner vs comps
To establish a baseline for Wagner, I identified comparable players who played F/C positions, averaged 10-22 MPG, and were 24-25 years old during the 2022-23 Season. Chimezie Metu (SAC) and Daniel Gafford (WAS) were chosen based on these criteria. This ensured the analysis focused on players with similar roles and responsibilities. Below is a side-by-side comparison of the three players and their contracts for the 2022-23 Season.
When comparing the PER36 production of these players, Wagner leads with 19.5 PTS/36 while attempting the most FGA/36 (12.9). Though the offensive scheme doesn’t necessarily go through him, it doesn’t steer away from him. Wagner takes 5.3 3PA/36, which is significantly more than his comps (Metu: 2.0, Gafford: 0.0). While Metu and Gafford earn 16.7% and 18.4% of their points from free throws, Wagner earns 25.6%, demonstrating the ability to draw fouls and convert easy points.
Wagner is unable to haul the rebounding production that his comps do. While 26.19% of his TRB comes from ORB, Gafford excels at creating extra chance points for his team at ~38%. This gap shows a clear trade-off: Wagner’s ability to stretch the floor comes at the expense of his ability to control the glass and create extra chance points. Wagner played a significant role as a rotational big man (GS: 18, GP: 57) and has four years of service with a team with a mean age of 25.5 years.
2. ORLANDO MAGIC
ROSTER ANALYSIS
In terms of statistical performance, Wagner ranks across several key categories relative to his team, highlighting both his strengths and weaknesses:
3 - contract evaluatioN
All Forwards and Centers signed during the 2021-22 Unrestricted Free Agency were identified, and a regression model was created to predict their 2022-23 Base Salaries using their PerGame statistics from the season before their signing. Variables with low correlation to each other were included in the model (e.g., highly correlated variables like DRB/TRB were excluded). This approach clarified the relationship between player performance and the base contracts signed for the 2022-23 Season.
The variables that were statistically significant in determining base salary are: PPG, RPG, BPG, & APG.
From the analysis, Moritz Wagner's predicted UFA Base Salary for the 2022-23 Season was ~$7,070,016. As shown in the graph, which plots 2021-22 PerGame statistics against the Base Salary for the 2022-23 Season, Wagner's performance placed him in a favorable position regarding salary evaluation.
The regression model yielded an R² value of 64.5%, indicating that 64.5% of the Base Salaries signed by F/C are explained by their 2021-22 per-game statistics included in the model.
